The permanence of these mitigation benefits will, however, depend on the effectiveness of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and manage the increasing risk of wildfires resulting from climate change. Individual companies may face additional risks such as regulatory and liability risks, reputational risks and market risks due to changing consumer preferences. Reducing losses to disasters depend on integrated and coordinated approaches to account for the hazards concerned, the degree of exposure, and existing vulnerabilities. [111] Lerner,H. and C.Berg (2017), A comparison of three holistic approaches to health: One health, ecohealth, and planetary health, Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol.4/SEP, http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2017.00163. 2 *:`8h 0_Y?8 # 2 w52X^|1M]V 929 ${+Jt `djHHfI&!xWI-*59t,YX{DN`O2O ];FREWLL+_nbw1RL UHvSO n {Lm$noO]nmD hPyUtEt3At JC:P:040 r. [72] Strand,J. and M.Toman (2010), Green Stimulus, Economic Recovery, and Long-Term Sustainable Development, http://econ.worldbank.org. Countries are invited to take further action to integrate biodiversity into the One Health approach by CBD Decision 14/4 Health and Biodiversity, which was adopted by the 14th Conference of the Parties to the CBD in 2018 (CBD, 2018[97]). However, the focus of this rhetoric and the green stimulus measures introduced to date has largely been limited to climate change, with much less attention given to biodiversity. While high mountains will provide new and greater habitat area, including refugia for lowland species, both range expansion and shrinkage are projected, and at high elevations this will lead to population declines (high confidence). {5.2.2.6, 5.2.4.2}, New ocean states for a broad suite of climate indices will progressively emerge over a substantial fractions of the ocean in the coming century (relative to past internal ocean variability), with Earth System Models (ESMs) showing an ordered emergence of first pH, followed by sea surface temperature (SST), interior oxygen, upper ocean nutrient levels and finally net primary production (NPP). [29] Bing Chua,K., B.Hui Chua and C.Wen Wang (2002), Anthropogenic deforestation, El Nino and the emergence of Nipah virus in Malaysia, Malaysian J Pathol, Vol.24/1, pp.15-21, http://www.gov.sg/ (accessed on 4June2020). India - As part of the INR 20 trillion (USD 0.27 trillion) recovery package, the Indian government is channelling INR 60billion (USD 0.8 billion) through its Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority to provide jobs for tribal communities in forest management, wildlife protection and other related activities (BFSI News, 2020[62]). [87] DeBoe,G. (2020), Economic and environmental sustainability performance of environmental policies in agriculture, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No.140, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/3d459f91-en. Based on new understanding about geological constraints since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), 25 m is a plausible upper bound on GMSL during the mPWP (low confidence). It is also intertwined with other prominent risks to society, such as climate change (Box2). For example, governments could provide targeted payments to promote biodiversity and other environmental public goods in agricultural systems; however only a handful of countries adopt these policies and they represent a small share of total support for agriculture (OECD, 2020[85]). Furthermore, the long (multi-millennial) time scales of these past climate and sea level changes, and regional climate influences from changes in Earths orbital configuration and climate system feedbacks, lead to, in direct comparisons with near-term future changes. The projected impacts on biomass in the abyssal seafloor are larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (, ). [95] CBD (2017), Guidance on Integrating Biodiversity Considerations Into One Health Approaches, Convention on Biological Diversity, https://www.cbd.int/doc/c/501c/4df1/369d06630c901cd02d4f99c7/sbstta-21-09-en.pdf (accessed on 4June2020). [59] The resulting maps are often used in conjunction with historic flood maps to determine the potential of floodwater storage capacity on specific sites using 3D modeling tools. Depending on the effectiveness of 21st century mitigation and adaptation pathways under all emission scenarios, most of the low-lying regions around the world may face adaptation limits beyond 2100, due to the long-term commitment of sea level rise (medium confidence). In some Arctic areas, such expansions have affected the whole fish community, leading to higher competition and predation on smaller sized fish species, while some commercial fisheries have benefited. In the 1970s a popular approach in the U.S. was that of Best Management Practices (BMP) for using nature as a model for infrastructure and development while the UK had a model for flood management called Sustainable Drainage Systems. Without genetic plasticity and/or behavioural shifts, cryospheric changes will continue to negatively impact endemic and native species, such as some coldwater fish (e.g., trout) and species whose traits directly depend on snow (e.g., snowshoe hares) or many large mammals (, ). Investing in preparation and prevention against the impacts from extreme events is very likely less than the cost of impacts and recovery (medium confidence). By the end of the century the annual mean stratification of the top 200 m (averaged between 60S60N relative to the 19862005 period) is projected to increase in the very likely range of 19% and 1230% for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively. Similar links have been drawn between malaria incidence and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Asia and Africa. {6.4, Figures 6.3, 6.4}, There have been three occurrences of extreme El Nio events during the modern observational period (19821983, 19971998, 20152016), all characterised by pronounced rainfall in the normally dry equatorial East Pacific. Under changing climatic conditions there are limits to the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation, and these limits are currently difficult to determine. Ocean and coasts. Blood-feeding ticks transmit the pathogen that causes Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi among host species, including humans. Sustainable cities: Nature-based solutions in urban design (The Nature Conservancy): This page was last edited on 15 September 2022, at 23:29. [52] Harris,R. etal. The planned revision of Chinas Wildlife Protection Law this year may provide an opportunity to further strengthen regulations and address remaining legislative gaps and loopholes (e.g. The governance landscape is currently not sufficiently equipped to address cascading risks and uncertainty in an integrated and precautionary way within existing legal and policy frameworks (, . "How many ecosystem services and stakeholder groups are targeted by a given NBS". JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. The oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding by a, range of 38%, most notably in the tropical oceans, but there is substantial decadal variability that affects the attribution of the overall oxygen declines to human activity in tropical regions (, in appraising past open ocean productivity trends, including those determined by satellites, due to newly identified region-specific drivers of microbial growth and the lack of corroborating, Observed rate of range shifts since the 1950s and, are estimated to be 51.5 33.3 km per decade and 29.0 15.5 km per decade for organisms in the epipelagic and seafloor ecosystems, respectively. 665-689. Northwest Science. An in-depth analysis [65] of all Nationally Determined Contributions[66] submitted to UNFCCC, revealed that around 130 NDCs or 65% of signatories commit to nature-based solutions in their climate pledges, suggesting broad consensus for the role of Nature in helping to meet climate change goals. Current emissions continue to grow at a rate consistent with a high emission future without effective climate change mitigation policies (referred to as RCP8.5). Countries have introduced a range of policy measures to counter the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These include too much water (flood), too little water (drought and water scarcity) or poor quality water. In addition to being vital for safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services, increased efforts to monitor and deter illegal extraction of natural resources (e.g. Areas of concern in earlier IPCC reports, such as the expected acceleration of sea level rise, are now observed (high confidence). Secure .gov websites use HTTPS {1.1, 1.4}, Ocean and cryosphere changes and risks by the end-of-century (2081-2100) will be larger under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, compared with low emission scenarios (very high confidence). Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. Projected glacier mass reductions between 20152100 are likely 2244% for RCP2.6 and 3757% for RCP8.5. A renewable resource, also known as a flow resource, is a natural resource which will replenish to replace the portion depleted by usage and consumption, either through natural reproduction or other recurring processes in a finite amount of time in a human time scale. In many parts of the United States, people rely on ground water for drinking, irrigation, industry, and livestock. Accommodation measures, such as early warning systems (EWS) for ESL events, are widespread. The 0700 m and 7002000 m layers of the ocean have warmed at rates of 5.31 0.48 and 4.02 0.97ZJyr, from 2005 to 2017. Protection of healthy ecosystems. {1.1, 1.2, 1.5}, Ocean and cryosphere changes interact with each of the, United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The increase in climatic hazards beyond thresholds of tolerance of deep sea organisms will increase the risk of loss of biodiversity and impacts on functioning of deep water column and seafloor that is important to support ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration (medium confidence). Differences in sensitivity and the scope for adaptation to, exist across a broad range of marine species groups. Towards an EU Research and Innovation policy agenda for nature-based solutions & re-naturing cities. {4.4.4.2, 4.4.5, Table 4.9}. There has been an overall greening of the tundra biome, but also browning in some regions of tundra and boreal forest, and changes in the abundance and distribution of animals including reindeer and salmon (, ). The first indicator describes levels of nutrients and pesticides in shallow ground water, which is the water most likely to be used by private wells. It is important, however, that efforts to increase the volume of biodiversity-positive stimulus measures are accompanied by efforts to reduce the volume of stimulus flowing to biodiversity-harmful activities. Current snowmaking technologies are projected to be less effective in a warmer climate in reducing risks to ski tourism in most parts of Europe, North America and Japan, in particular at 2C global warming and beyond (, ). Retreat is observed but largely restricted to small communities or carried out for the purpose of creating new wetland habitat. {Box 5.4, 5.4.2}, Many frameworks for climate resilient coastal adaptation have been developed since AR5, with substantial variations in approach between and within countries, and across development status (high confidence). Almost 10% of the global population lives in the Arctic or high mountain regions. IUCN: Gland, Switzerland. Anthropogenic climate change may have contributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific in recent decades related to anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (low confidence). Yet it is being destroyed at an unprecedented and accelerating rate, with 25% of all plant and animal species now threatened with extinction. [110] Charron,D. {5.5.2}, Climate models project significant changes in the ocean state over the coming century. Wildlife trade has increased over the past decades. Long response times of decades to millennia mean that the ocean and cryosphere are committed to long-term change even after atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and radiative forcing stabilise (high confidence). Runoff into the Arctic Ocean increased for Eurasian and North American rivers by 3.3 1.6% and 2.0 1.8% respectively (19762017; medium confidence). Read about the Mangrove importance, cover and conservation in India. Living Planet Report 2020 - Bending the curve of biodiversity loss. {1.5, 1.7, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1}, Robust assessments of ocean and cryosphere change, and the development of context-specific governance and response options, depend on utilising and strengthening all available knowledge systems (high confidence). Emphasis on short-term adaptation to specific problems will ultimately not succeed in reducing the risks and vulnerabilities to society given the scale, complexity and uncertainty of climate change. Nevertheless, the protection and enhancement of coastal blue carbon can be an important contribution to both mitigation and adaptation at the national scale. This is particularly true in areas with limited precipitation, limited surface water resources, or high demand from agriculture and growing populations. [17] Ostfeld,R. and F.Keesing (2012), Effects of host diversity on infectious Disease, Annu. {3.3.1}, Mass loss from Arctic glaciers (212 29 Gt yr-1) during 20062015 contributed to sea level rise at a similar rate (0.6 0.1 mm yr-1) to the GIS (high confidence). Economic challenges to hard protection increase with higher sea levels and will make adaptation unaffordable before technical limits are reached (high confidence). The extent of ground water refers to the amount available, typically measured in terms of volume or saturated thickness of an aquifer (body of ground water). [89] OECD (2020), Tracking Economic Instruments and Finance for Biodiversity Tracking Economic Instruments. This could be achieved by lender countries offering lower interest rates and principal repayments in return for increasing biodiversity protection (Zadek, 2020[102]). In these systems, sediment relocation, soil accretion and landward expansion of vegetation may initially mitigate against flooding and habitat loss, but salt marshes in particular will be at very high risk in the context of SLR and extreme climate-driven erosion under RCP8.5. Chinese National Government; Sponge Cities Program, Climate change, disaster risk, food management. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.2.2, 4.2.2.1, 4.2.2.5, SM 4.1}, Non-climatic anthropogenic drivers, including recent and historical demographic and settlement trends and anthropogenic subsidence, have played an important role in increasing low-lying coastal communities exposure and vulnerability to SLR and extreme sea level (ESL) events (very high confidence). [27], The IUCN proposes to consider NBS as an umbrella concept. Integrated management approaches for water across all scales, in particular for energy, agriculture, ecosystems and drinking water supply, can be effective at dealing with impacts from changes in the cryosphere. [32] Stauffer,J. and H.Madsen (2012), Schistosomiasis in Lake Malawi and the Potential Use of Indigenous Fish for Biological Control, in Schistosomiasis, InTech, http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/26018. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Sendai Framework and Paris Agreement have directed some attention in mountain-specific research and practice towards the monitoring and reporting on targets and indicators specified therein. Hard protection and advance (building into the sea) are economically efficient in most urban contexts facing land scarcity (, ), but can lead to increased exposure in the long term. [21] Allan,B., F.Keesing and R.Ostfeld (2003), Effect of forest fragmentation on lyme disease risk, Conservation Biology, Vol.17/1, pp.267-272, http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01260.x. Changes in Arctic sea ice have potential to influence mid-latitude weather on timescales of weeks to months (, While the drivers of historical decadal variability are known with, concerning causes of the strong recent decrease (2016, in the ability of current-generation climate models to reproduce and explain the observations. Some cold-adapted species, including endemics, in terrestrial and freshwater communities have declined in abundance (, While the plant productivity has generally increased, the actual impact on provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services varies greatly (, In several regions, worsening route safety has reduced mountaineering opportunities (, ). There is increasing evidence of an increase in the seasonal exposure to acidified conditions in the future (, increase in the amplitude of seasonal cycle of hydrogen iron concentrations of 7190% by 2100, relative to 2000 for the RCP8.5 scenario, especially at high latitudes. Many low-lying cities and small islands at most latitudes will experience such events annually by 2050. With companies redesigning operations and supply chains to address the crisis, now is also a good time to promote the uptake of responsible business conduct (RBC) standards and tools.13 OECDs Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises (OECD, 2011[81]) and OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Business Conduct (OECD, 2018[82]) could help guide these efforts. [4] Elliott, W.R. 2000. Governments face the challenge of ensuring that environmental monitoring and enforcement continues to be financed and conducted during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (while respecting social distancing, travel restrictions and other health measures). {2.3.1}, Species composition and abundance have markedly changed in high mountain ecosystems in recent decades (very high confidence), partly due to changes in the cryosphere (high confidence). 2012. Snow avalanches are projected to decline in number and runout distance at lower elevation, and avalanches involving wet snow even in winter will occur more frequently (medium confidence). For each of the five years since the IPCC 5th Asesssment Report (AR5) (20142018), Arctic annual surface air temperature exceeded that of any year since 1900. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 27: 3736. Institutional barriers presently limit their efficacy. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defines NBS as actions to protect, sustainably manage, and restore natural or modified ecosystems, that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits,[25] with common societal challenges cited as being climate change, food security, disaster risks, water security, social and economic development as well as human health. The oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding by a very likely range of 38%, most notably in the tropical oceans, but there is substantial decadal variability that affects the attribution of the overall oxygen declines to human activity in tropical regions (high confidence). The average winter snowmelt runoff is projected to increase (high confidence), and spring peaks to occur earlier (very high confidence). Accommodation such as flood proofing buildings and EWS for ESL events are often both low-cost and highly cost-efficient in all contexts (high confidence). {6.7}, Coupling insurance mechanisms with risk reduction measures can enhance the cost-effectiveness of adapting to climate change (, Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities, Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks, Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-lying Islands and Coasts, Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change, Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, Low-lying Islands and Coasts (Integrative Cross-Chapter Box), Role of the Ocean and Cryosphere in the Earth System, Ocean and Cryosphere in Earths Energy, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles, Interactions Between the Ocean and Cryosphere, Time Scales, Thresholds and Detection of Ocean and Cryosphere Change, Observed and Projected Changes in the Ocean, Observed and Projected Changes in the Cryosphere, Risk and Impacts Related to Ocean and Cryosphere Change, Hazards and Opportunities for Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems, Exposure of Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems, Vulnerabilities in Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems, Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Climate Change for the Ocean and Cryosphere, Mitigation and Adaptation Options in the Ocean and Cryosphere, Adaptation in Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems, Knowledge Systems for Understanding and Responding to Change, The Role of Knowledge in Peoples Responses to Climate, Ocean and Cryosphere Change, Communication of Confidence in Assessment Findings, Integrated Storyline of this Special Report, Atmospheric Drivers of Changes in the Mountain Cryosphere, Mountain Social-Ecological Systems: Impacts, Risks and Human Responses, International Policy Frameworks and Pathways to Sustainable Development, Additional Information on Global and Regional Glacier Mass Change Estimates for 20062015, Introduction: Polar Regions, People and the Planet, Sea Ice and Polar Oceans: Changes, Consequences and Impacts, Polar Ice Sheets and Glaciers: Changes, Consequences and Impacts, Components of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Change, Components of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Change, Observations, Components of Change, and Drivers, Arctic Snow, Freshwater Ice and Permafrost: Changes, Consequences and Impacts, Human Responses to Climate Change in Polar Regions, Arctic Non-Renewable Extractive Industries, International Climate Governance and Law: Implications for International Cooperation, Purpose, Scope, and Structure of this Chapter, Future Sea level Rise and Implications for Responses, Sea Level Rise Impacts and Implications for Responses, Response Options, Governance Challenges and Ways Forward, Physical Basis for Sea Level Change and Associated Hazards, Observed Changes in Sea Level (Past and Present), Global Mean Sea Level Changes During the Instrumental Period, Contributions to Global Mean Sea Level Change During the Instrumental Period, Regional Sea Level Changes During the Instrumental Period, 4.2.2.5 Attribution of Sea Level Change to Anthropogenic Forcing, Global and Regional Projections of Sea Level Rise, Exposure, Vulnerability, Impacts and Risk Related to Sea Level Rise, Dimensions of Exposure and Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise, Towards a Synthetic Understanding of the Drivers of Exposure and Vulnerability, Terrestrial Processes Shaping Coastal Exposure and Vulnerability, Observed Impacts, and Current and Future Risk of Sea Level Rise, Attribution of Observed Physical Changes to Sea Level Rise, Submergence and Flooding of Coastal Areas, Coastal Erosion and Projected Global Impacts of Enhanced Erosion on Human Systems, Conclusion on Coastal Risk: Reasons for Concern and Future Risks, Key Findings on Future Risks and Adaptation Benefits, Observed and Projected Responses, their Costs, Benefits, Co-benefits, Drawbacks, Efficiency and Governance, Types of Responses and Framework for Assessment, Governance challenges in responding to sea level rise, Understanding Barriers to Adaptation as Governance Challenges, Governance Challenges in the Face of Sea Level Rise, Planning, Engagement and Decision Tools for Choosing Responses, Planning, Public Participation and Conflict Resolution in the Face of SLR, Enabling Conditions and Lessons Learned From Practice, Towards Climate Resilient Development Pathways, Changes in Physical and Biogeochemical Properties, Changing Temperature, Salinity, Circulation, Changing Ocean Primary and Export Production, Open Ocean Seafloor - Abyssal Plains (3000-6000 m), Changing Coastal Ecosystems and Biodiversity, Coastal Wetlands (Salt Marshes, Seagrass Meadows and Mangrove Forests), Changing Marine Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being, Climate Risk, Vulnerability and Exposure of Human Communities and their Well-being, Impacts of Changing Ocean on Sustainable Development Goals, Risk-reduction Responses and their Governance, Context for Blue Carbon and Overview Assessment, Ocean-based Climate Change Adaptation Frameworks. "Environment as Infrastructure: Resilience to Climate Change Impacts of Water Through Investments in Nature" Perspectives on Water and Climate Change Adaptation. Diversification through year-round activities supports adaptation of tourism under future climate change (, Integrated management approaches for water across all scales, in particular for energy, agriculture, ecosystems and drinking water supply, can be effective at dealing with impacts from changes in the cryosphere. West Nile virus West Nile virus can cause neurological disease and death in people. Biological contaminants can include bacteria, viruses, protozoans, and other Geographic information systems (GIS) can be used as an analysis tool to determine sites that may succeed as NBS. This indicator is limited to areas with substantial agricultural activity, which was a key focus of the program that collected the data. {, The 0700 m and 7002000 m layers of the ocean have warmed by 3.22 1.61 ZJ and 0.97 0.64 ZJ from 1969to 1993, and 6.28 0.48 ZJ and 3.86 2.09ZJ from 1993 to 2017. {4.3.4, 4.4.2.2, 4.4.3.2, Cross-Chapter Box 9}, While only urban atoll islands and some Arctic communities are expected to experience moderate to high risk relative to today in a low emission pathway, almost high to very high risks are expected in all low-lying coastal settings at the upper end of the, ). The challenge is therefore to provide a robust evidence base for the contribution of nature to economic growth and jobs, and to demonstrate the economic viability of these solutions compared to technological ones on a timescale compatible with that of global change. [36] Ezenwa,V. etal. {Box 5.3}, Climate change impacts on ecosystems and their goods and services threatens key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods. Projected climate change impacts on fisheries also increase the risk of potential conflicts among fishery area users and authorities or among two different communities within the same country (medium confidence), exacerbated through competing resource exploitation from international actors and mal-adapted policies (low confidence). {5.3.4, 5.4.1}, Multiple hazards of warming, deoxygenation, aragonite under-saturation and decrease in flux of organic carbon from the surface ocean will decrease calcification and exacerbate the bioerosion and dissolution of the non-living component of cold water coral. Cambridge Core is the new academic platform from Cambridge University Press, replacing our previous platforms; Cambridge Journals Online (CJO), Cambridge Books Online (CBO), University Publishing Online (UPO), Cambridge Histories Online (CHO), Specific impacts on the stocks and economic value in both regions will depend on future climate change and on the strategies employed to manage the effects on stocks and ecosystems (medium confidence). Similarly, a constructed wetland can be developed as a Type 3 NBS but, when well-established, may subsequently be preserved and surveyed as a Type 1 solution.

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