Learn more. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. This includes Sens. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Free shipping for many products! The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. RCP House Ratings, Map. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. . Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] When the dates . Partisan Lean (5). In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Ronald Reagan 1981-89. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. The poll, whose . Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . All rights reserved. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. I'm just trying to convey the truth. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. The . Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Independent Sens. Those include Republican Sens. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . 772 days 4 . If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. Buy It Now. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . George H.W. Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. All Rights Reserved. Got a confidential news tip? But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. Early polling indicates a tight race. 1990 FLEER. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Pollapalooza (249) But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. . By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Youre ridiculous. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Richard Nixon 1969-74. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). That suggests she has a bit of crossover appeal, but that her fate is still closely tied to partisanship. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. Lt. Gov. The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Gerald Ford 1974-77. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. Ronald Reagan, the nation's 40th president, became one of the nation's most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the average job approval ratings he received while in office between 1981 and 1989. Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Have questions? If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Gas prices have plummeted. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Independent Sens. ago. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited The American Independent is the No. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. Doug Jones (36) The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. Price: US $0.99. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. The poll is hardly an outlier. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Hi. Approval Ratings (130) In . Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Democratic Lt. Gov. Bush 1989-93. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. 56% of independent voters in . Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. By Eli Yokley.

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